Montsant A., Baena O., Bernardez L., Puig J. (2021). Modelling the impacts of climate change on potential cultivation area and water deficit in five Mediterranean crops. SJAR : Spanish journal of agricultural research, 01/06/2021, vol. 19, n. 2, p. 1-14.
https://doi.org/10.5424/sjar/2021192-17112
https://doi.org/10.5424/sjar/2021192-17112
Titre : | Modelling the impacts of climate change on potential cultivation area and water deficit in five Mediterranean crops (2021) |
Auteurs : | A. Montsant ; O. Baena ; L. Bernardez ; J. Puig |
Type de document : | Article |
Dans : | SJAR : Spanish journal of agricultural research (vol. 19, n. 2, June 2021) |
Article en page(s) : | p. 1-14 |
Langues : | Anglais |
Langues du résumé : | Anglais |
Catégories : |
Catégories principales 07 - ENVIRONNEMENT ; 7.6 - Changement ClimatiqueThésaurus IAMM CULTURE PLUVIALE ; IRRIGATION ; EVALUATION DE L'IMPACT ; CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ; AGRICULTURE ; SYSTEME DE CULTURE ; ZONE AGROCLIMATIQUE ; SYSTEME D'INFORMATION GEOGRAPHIQUE ; REGION MEDITERRANEENNE ; ESPAGNE ; CATALUNA |
Résumé : | Aim of study : To assess the impacts of climate change on local agriculture with a high resolution in a Mediterranean region with a diversity of climates. Area of study : Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods : Based on historical meteorological records and a regionalization of the RCP4.5 model created by the Catalan Meteorological Service, the Papadakis agro-climate classification was calculated for two climate scenarios. The changes in agro-climatic suitability and irrigation needs of five typical Mediterranean crops (alfalfa, almond, barley, olive and orange) were analysed. Main results : In the 2031-2050 climate scenario, over 15% of the study area will no longer be adequate for non-irrigated almond or olive, at locations in which they have been traditionally rainfed crops. If irrigation is provided, orange is likely to become agro-climatically suited for the entire Catalan coastline. Were the current crop distribution maintained, irrigation needs may increase on average 16% in the study area in the future scenario. Research highlights : High-resolution GIS data may be combined with Papadakis classical method to compare different climate scenarios and detect risks and opportunities for local and regional agriculture. |
Cote : | En ligne |
URL / DOI : | https://doi.org/10.5424/sjar/2021192-17112 |