Eisele M., Troost C., Berger T. (2021). How bayesian are farmers when making climate adaptation decisions? A computer laboratory experiment for parameterising models of expectation formation. Journal of agricultural economics, 01/09/2021, vol. 72, n. 3, p. 805-828.
https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12425
https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12425
Titre : | How bayesian are farmers when making climate adaptation decisions? A computer laboratory experiment for parameterising models of expectation formation (2021) |
Auteurs : | M. Eisele ; C. Troost ; T. Berger |
Type de document : | Article |
Dans : | Journal of agricultural economics (vol. 72, n. 3, September 2021) |
Article en page(s) : | p. 805-828 |
Langues : | Anglais |
Langues du résumé : | Anglais |
Catégories : |
Catégories principales 07 - ENVIRONNEMENT ; 7.6 - Changement ClimatiqueThésaurus IAMM CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ; ATTENUATION DES EFFETS DU CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ; COMPORTEMENT DES AGRICULTEURS ; PRISE DE DECISION ; MODELE DE SIMULATION ; RECHERCHE AGRICOLE ; PRODUCTION AGRICOLE ; ALLEMAGNE |
Résumé : | As the consequences of climate change for agricultural production slowly unfold at the local level (sometimes with contradicting signals), farmers information processing and decision making become more relevant for policy analysis and modelling. The major challenge is to reveal patterns in the way farmers form expectations about future production outcomes and to encode these findings into models of heterogeneous expectation formation. We developed and tested a payout-motivated field experiment to observe farmer decision-making under climate change and to examine how they form their expectations in a recursive-dynamic context. Participants were exposed to ambiguity and acquired incremental evidence about the true distribution of possible climate outcomes through repeated random draws. Simulation models used in agricultural and environmental research usually implement simple forms of adaptive agent expectation or completely neglect this issue by assuming perfect foresight or constant expectations. Our computer laboratory experiments with blue- and white-collar farmers from Southwest Germany (n = 97) suggest that expectation behaviour of a large share of farmers can be well replicated with Bayesian types of expectation models. |
Cote : | En ligne |
URL / DOI : | https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12425 |