Zouabi O. (2022). The effect of climate change on the production of irrigated and non-irrigated plants: a short and long term ARDL modelling for the case of Tunisia. Région et développement, 01/02/2022, n. 55, p. 76-92.
https://regionetdeveloppement.univ-tln.fr/wp-content/uploads/5-Zouabi.pdf
https://regionetdeveloppement.univ-tln.fr/wp-content/uploads/5-Zouabi.pdf
Titre : | The effect of climate change on the production of irrigated and non-irrigated plants: a short and long term ARDL modelling for the case of Tunisia (2022) |
Auteurs : | O. Zouabi |
Type de document : | Article |
Dans : | Région et développement (n. 55, February 2022) |
Article en page(s) : | p. 76-92 |
Langues : | Anglais |
Langues du résumé : | Anglais |
Catégories : |
Catégories principales 07 - ENVIRONNEMENT ; 7.6 - Changement ClimatiqueThésaurus IAMM CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ; PRODUCTION AGRICOLE ; CULTURE IRRIGUEE ; CEREALICULTURE ; PRECIPITATION ; PRODUCTION VEGETALE ; CEREALE ; FRUITS ET LEGUMES ; MODELE DE SIMULATION ; PRATIQUE AGRICOLE ; TUNISIE |
Résumé : | We propose to analyze the direct effect of climate change on the agricultural production of irrigated and non-irrigated plants, in the short and long term, in Tunisia. The methodological is based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The originality of this method is that it allows time dynamics to be taken into account in the explanation of a variable, thus improving forecasts and economic policies to be implemented in the short and long term. To this end, we used a highly disaggregated database describing the evolution of average temperature, rainfall, fertilizer, agricultural labor and the surface area of each plant in Tunisia over a long period, from 1984 to 2019.The results found reveal that, in the long term, there is a strong positive correlation between cereal production and rainfall in the governorates of North-West Tunisia. Contrary to the results found by the cereal crop, our results show that the average temperature has a positive effect on vegetable production. They also show that rainfall generally has a greater effect on vegetable and cereal production in the long term than in the short term. Our results also show that long term fruit production shows remarkable declines in the most fruit-producing governorates following an increase in rainfall and fertilizers, while an increase in production has taken place following an increase in labor force and agricultural area. |
Cote : | En ligne |
URL / DOI : | https://regionetdeveloppement.univ-tln.fr/wp-content/uploads/5-Zouabi.pdf |