| Titre : | Integrating food loss and waste reduction policies with global dietary shifts: an economic modelling study (2025) |
| Auteurs : | A. Gatto ; M. Chepeliev |
| Type de document : | Article |
| Dans : | The Lancet Planetary Health (vol. 9, n. 10, October 2025) |
| Article en page(s) : | p. 101285 |
| Langues : | Anglais |
| Langues du résumé : | Anglais |
| Catégories : |
Catégories principales 08 - ALIMENTATION ; 8.3 - Politique et Sécurité AlimentaireThésaurus IAMM GASPILLAGE ALIMENTAIRE ; PERTE ; REGIME ALIMENTAIRE ; MODELE |
| Résumé : |
Background
Food loss and waste undermine the resilience and sustainability of global food systems, jeopardising progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Adopting healthier and more sustainable diets could help reduce global food loss and waste, but the potential trade-offs on food loss and waste trends and interactions with standalone reduction policies remain largely unexplored. We aimed to investigate the effects of reducing food loss and waste within the context of a global dietary transition by 2050, shedding light on the synergies and trade-offs between two crucial policy areas for the food systems of the future. Methods In this economic modelling study, we linked the economic and technical modelling of food loss and waste by adding consistent tracing of food loss and waste in physical quantities along global (ie, domestic and international) food supply chains within a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework. This framework captures the behavioural responses of economic actors along food and non-food supply chains. We built on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base, incorporating data extensions for energy, nutritional accounts, and food loss and waste flows along stages of global supply chains. We first investigated the impact of halving global food loss and waste through technological developments by 2050, in line with the SDG 12.3 target. We then analysed the impact of transitioning to healthier and more sustainable diets by 2050, promoting a global dietary transition through behavioural changes. We explored this dietary transition both with and without the goal of halving global food loss and waste, highlighting how food loss and waste targets interact with dietary changes on a global scale. Our scenarios were chosen to show how the magnitude, composition, location, and reuse potential of food loss and food waste could evolve under different scenarios compared with business-as-usual dietary developments. Findings Food loss and waste along global supply chains were projected to rise by 52·0% by 2050 under the continuation of historical trends. Diet shifts alone were projected to be insufficient to curb this rise in food loss and waste, with demographic trends and growing incomes driving the total volume of lost and discarded food. Regional spillover effects of healthier diets—whereby low-income countries increase plant-based food production to meet growing demand in high-income countries—exacerbated food loss and waste trends, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and north Africa. In sub-Saharan Africa, rapid population growth and increased per-capita gross domestic product drove food loss and waste when dietary changes were implemented (an increase of 132·2% from 2014 to 2050) and when standalone food loss and waste reduction targets were applied (an increase of 61·8% from 2014 to 2050). Globally, dietary shifts were projected to drive food loss and waste for oilseeds and fish, surpassing baseline levels by 2050. Further spillovers emerged in high-income countries where demand for fresh plant-based foods was shown to drive losses at production stages. Global trade was also found to amplify food loss and waste in exporting regions, as increasing exports of plant-based products from sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America to Europe, the USA, and India increased farm-level food loss and waste. Coupling dietary transitions with targeted food loss and waste reduction policies in line with SDG 12.3 successfully controlled spillover effects on a global scale. A combined strategy could reduce global food loss and waste by 63·2%, eliminating commodity-specific and stage-specific spillovers and enhancing the effectiveness of dietary changes. Potential benefits were particularly notable in sub-Saharan Africa where nutritional availability could increase by an average of 365 calories per capita per day by 2050. Interpretation Policies promoting healthier diets must consider spillover effects on food loss and waste (eg, a potential rise in loss and waste generation when global consumption shifts towards plant-based products). As shifts in production, consumption, and trade alter the magnitude, location, and composition of food loss and waste, monitoring these changes is crucial to establishing the priority areas for food loss and waste reduction or reuse interventions, especially in low-income regions. Although dietary shifts can improve nutrition, new technologies and market-based approaches to reuse discarded food and food waste—whether linked to domestic consumption or trade—could create economic opportunities and environmental benefits. To maximise these benefits, food loss and waste reduction should be central to discussions on dietary transition policies, as spillover effects risk undermining the positive outcomes of a global dietary shift. Funding None. |
| Cote : | En ligne |
| URL / DOI : | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101285 |
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