| Titre : | A coupled land use change-ecohydrological model for multi-seasonal arid agricultural systems: an Egyptian case study (2026) |
| Auteurs : | A. Sattar ; S. Moulds ; C. Brown ; M. Rounsevell ; P. Alexander |
| Type de document : | Article |
| Dans : | Environmental Modelling & Software (vol. 197, February 2026) |
| Article en page(s) : | p. 106845 |
| Langues : | Anglais |
| Langues du résumé : | Anglais |
| Catégories : |
Catégories principales 06 - AGRICULTURE. FORÊTS. PÊCHES ; 6.1 - Généralités. Situation AgricoleThésaurus IAMM MODELE ; UTILISATION DES TERRES ; HYDROLOGIE ; UTILISATION DE L'EAU ; GESTION DES RESSOURCES NATURELLES ; EGYPTE |
| Résumé : | Modelling interactions between climate, water, crops, and human decision-making requires coupling of biophysical and socioeconomic processes to model outcomes and explore potential futures. This study presents a novel coupled model of land-use change and ecohydrological processes in arid agricultural systems. The model links SWAT+, which simulates ecohydrological processes, including crop growth and irrigation water use, with CRAFTY, an agent-based framework that allocates land according to agent characteristics and resource conditions. Egypt is used as a case study where climate and socioeconomic stressors constrain agricultural production. The coupling captures how shifts in potential yields, driven by elevated CO2 and warming, shape land-use change. Crop yields vary by crop and scenario, with the largest gains-and declines-under high-emission futures, while water use efficiency consistently improves, especially at higher CO2 concentrations. Relying on open global datasets, the model provides a transferable approach for exploring climate adaptation in data-scarce, water-limited regions. |
| Cote : | En ligne |
| URL / DOI : | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106845 |
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