| Titre : | Process-based assessment of wheat yield gap in Mediterranean rainfed conditions: cultivar, nutrient, and sowing optimization (2026) |
| Auteurs : | L. Ousayd ; E. Bouras ; A. Mamassi ; A. Chehbouni ; V. Ongoma |
| Type de document : | Article |
| Dans : | European Journal of Agronomy (vol. 174, March 2026) |
| Article en page(s) : | p. 127967 |
| Langues : | Anglais |
| Langues du résumé : | Anglais |
| Catégories : |
Catégories principales 06 - AGRICULTURE. FORÊTS. PÊCHES ; 6.4 - Production Agricole. Système de ProductionThésaurus IAMM PRODUCTION AGRICOLE ; RENDEMENT DES CULTURES ; CEREALICULTURE ; BLE ; MAROC |
| Résumé : | Wheat production in Morocco remains constrained by persistent yield gaps arising from climatic variability, soil fertility decline, and suboptimal farm management. This study aimed to quantify attainable and actual yields of bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and to identify management pathways for reducing these gaps under rainfed conditions in Morocco. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was calibrated and validated for five representative cultivars across major rainfed agroecological zones using multi-season field observations. Model evaluation showed high predictive accuracy for grain yield (R2 = 0.87, RMSE = 0.25 t/ha, NRMSE = 12.5 %), above-ground biomass (R2 = 0.93, RMSE = 1.2 t/ha, NRMSE = 8.7 %), and leaf area index (R2 = 0.81, RMSE = 0.73, NRMSE = 15.2 %). Simulated potential yield (Yp) averaged 5.4 t/ha, of which 66% was attainable under water-limited rainfed conditions (Yw = 3.6 t/ha) and 48 % was realized as observed farmer yield (Ya = 2.6 t/ha), resulting in an exploitable yield gap of approximately 52 % (2.8 t/ha). Scenario analysis indicated yield gains of 25-35 % from improved nitrogen use and 30-40 % from supplemental irrigation, while integrated management closed 40-65 % of the exploitable gap and raised mean yields to 3.8-4.2 t/ha. Across management strategies, intermediate-input scenarios delivered strong economic performance, achieving marginal rate of return values of 257-433 % with modest additional costs (266-1389 MAD/ha). These findings demonstrate that targeted integration of water and nutrient management can substantially enhance wheat productivity and resilience, offering a practical framework for advancing sustainable intensification and national food selfsufficiency. |
| Cote : | En ligne |
| URL / DOI : | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2025.127967 |
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