| Titre : | Growth and impending decline in groundwater dependent agriculture: exploration of sustainability policies through participatory modeling (2026) |
| Auteurs : | I. Uygur ; A.K. Saysel ; I. Daloglu Cetinkaya |
| Type de document : | Article |
| Dans : | Agricultural systems (vol. 234, April 2026) |
| Article en page(s) : | p. 104663 |
| Langues : | Anglais |
| Langues du résumé : | Anglais |
| Catégories : |
Catégories principales 07 - ENVIRONNEMENT ; 7.3 - Eau. Gestion de l'EauThésaurus IAMM GESTION DES EAUX ; EAU SOUTERRAINE ; RESSOURCE EN EAU ; STRESS DU A LA SECHERESSE ; AGRICULTURE ; DURABILITE ; TURQUIE |
| Résumé : |
CONTEXT
Groundwater is a vital resource for agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions. Yet, groundwater sustainability is framed as a wicked problem due to the lack of a shared understanding of the problem and thus effective strategies, as well as conflicting goals and interests between different stakeholder groups. Çumra in Konya is one of the most prominent agricultural production hubs in Türkiye, also referred to as the breadbasket of the country. With its semi-arid climate and absence of sufficient surface water resources, Çumra is representative of similar water-stressed Mediterranean landscapes. The continuous decline in the groundwater table, along with a shift in crop patterns over the past two decades, signals overexploitation due to coordination failures and lack of collective action. OBJECTIVE This study aims to (1) investigate the factors leading to unsustainable groundwater use in irrigation and (2) find leverage points within the system to design policies contributing to a more sustainable future, and thus securing agricultural production, the backbone of the regional economy. METHODS Living labs are a structured approach to stakeholder participation using real-life settings as experimental spaces to co-design, test, and refine solutions with end users. Modeling and simulation are effective tools for addressing wicked problems. System dynamics models aim to capture the structural foundations that reveal the observed behavior patterns with an endogenous perspective. In this study, a formal system dynamics model is built and analyzed by the involvement of stakeholders in a living lab framework, employing the principles of community-based system dynamics and group model building. The model represents groundwater hydrology and farmers' decision-making, including crop choice, irrigation methods, and water consumption choices, and serves as a platform to evaluate various policy alternatives, such as surface water transfers from neighboring basins, crop rotation schemes, regulatory measures like well restrictions or amnesties, and interventions targeting electricity and crop prices ? policies commonly suggested in similar contexts. The model is formally validated in two consecutive steps: first structurally then behaviorally. Additionally, the groundwater sub-model is partially validated against a UZF-MODFLOW model developed for the Konya Basin. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The model is run under business-as-usual conditions (without any policy interventions) and also under three different policy options that were co-designed with stakeholders in the living lab, reflecting stakeholders' preferences and attitudes and assessed against two key criteria: groundwater sustainability (indicated by groundwater table trends) and district profitability (reflecting agricultural value added). The behaviors of the key system variables are simulated over time, projecting future trends and offering insights into the potential effectiveness of stakeholder-proposed solutions. Policies favored by different stakeholders, i.e., water users and authorities, have varying results regarding groundwater savings, cropping patterns, irrigation demand, crop yields etc. The highest performing policy option in terms of groundwater sustainability and district profit represents a compromise between water users and authorities and saves approximately 20 m of groundwater compared to the business-as-usual scenario over a 19-year time horizon by stabilizing the groundwater level without diminishing profits. In that sense, the simulated outputs suggest that integrated policy approaches may support both groundwater sustainability and the economic benefits of agriculture, improving the feasibility and public acceptance of such policies. The results also demonstrate the model's usefulness for stakeholder-informed policy exploration and its effectiveness in supporting evaluation of long-term policy trade-offs. SIGNIFICANCE The study adopts a novel approach towards stakeholder participation in system dynamics modeling in a living lab framework by (1) conducting a thorough stakeholder analysis to identify constituents of the living lab, (2) constructing a formal (mathematical) model for simulation, which is usually absent in participatory system dynamics studies in an agricultural context, and (3) involving stakeholders throughout the modeling process from problem identification to conceptual model creation, model validation, and ultimately, scenario and policy analysis. The methodology can be replicated for similar cases to address unsustainable groundwater use as it exemplifies a systems perspective in a living lab framework, bringing together hydrologic, agronomic, and decision sciences to provide a holistic understanding. Additionally, despite the historical and current importance of Çumra as an agricultural hub, studies focusing on the socio-economic drivers of groundwater abstraction in the region are lacking in the literature. |
| Cote : | Réservé lecteur CIHEAM |
| URL / DOI : | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104663 |
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