| Titre : | Economic vulnerability of cereal production in Northern Algeria under climate change: cost-benefit analysis of adaptation strategies using DSSAT-SWOT (2025) |
| Auteurs : | M. Marouf Aribi |
| Type de document : | Article |
| Dans : | Research on World Agricultural Economy (vol. 6, n. 4, December 2025) |
| Article en page(s) : | p. 348-361 |
| Langues : | Anglais |
| Langues du résumé : | Anglais |
| Catégories : |
Catégories principales 07 - ENVIRONNEMENT ; 7.6 - Changement ClimatiqueThésaurus IAMM CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ; ADAPTATION AU CHANGEMENT ; CEREALICULTURE ; CEREALE ; ALGERIE |
| Résumé : | This study examines the economic vulnerability of cereal production to climate change across four key regions of northern Algeria, Blida, Tizi Ouzou, Tiaret, and Sétif, selected for their agro-climatic diversity and strategic contribution to national grain supply. By integrating DSSAT crop modeling with a SWOT-AHP multi-criteria framework, the research evaluates adaptation strategies through a cost-benefit perspective. Climate projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2025-2050) suggest potential cereal yield declines of 18% to 40% by mid-century, which could raise annual cereal import costs by $1.2 billion and result in the loss of up to 12,000 agricultural jobs. Among the climatic constraints, heat stress during the flowering stage emerges as the most critical yield-limiting factor. Stakeholder-weighted prioritization highlights drip irrigation (BCR = 2.8) and drought-tolerant seed varieties (BCR = 1.9) as the most economically viable interventions, though both require substantial initial investment (≈ $500 million) and subsidy reforms. The findings reveal significant trade-offs within Algeria's agricultural policy but underscore that reallocating existing cereal subsidies toward climate-smart technologies could considerably strengthen resilience while maintaining food security in semi-arid regions. Beyond Algeria, the study provides a replicable framework for other countries facing similar climate-agriculture challenges, combining biophysical modeling with participatory decision-making to guide cost-effective adaptation. |
| Cote : | En ligne |
| URL / DOI : | https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v6i4.2278 |
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