Kourat T., Smadhi D., Mouhouche B., Gourari N., Amin M.G.M., Bryant C.R. (2021). Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model. Natural Hazards, 01/07/2021, vol. 107, n. 3, p. 2175-2203.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04435-5
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04435-5
Titre : | Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model (2021) |
Auteurs : | T. Kourat ; D. Smadhi ; B. Mouhouche ; N. Gourari ; M.G.M. Amin ; C.R. Bryant |
Type de document : | Article |
Dans : | Natural Hazards (vol. 107, n. 3, July 2021) |
Article en page(s) : | p. 2175-2203 |
Langues : | Anglais |
Langues du résumé : | Anglais |
Catégories : |
Catégories principales 07 - ENVIRONNEMENT ; 7.6 - Changement ClimatiqueThésaurus IAMM CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ; EVALUATION ; EVALUATION DE L'IMPACT ; EVALUATION IMPACT SUR ENVIRONNEMENT ; RENDEMENT ; RENDEMENT DES CULTURES ; BLE ; CULTURE PLUVIALE ; CLIMAT SEMI ARIDE ; MODELE ; ALGERIE |
Résumé : | Maintaining sustainability in rainfed wheat production under changing climate is a grave concern for food security in Algeria. This study aims to assess the impact of future climate change on rainfed wheat yield in the semiarid Eastern High Plains (Setif and Bordj Bou Arreridj (BBA)) in Algeria using AquaCrop model. For this purpose, the EURO-CORDEX climate projections by 20352064 and 20652094 were downscaled using ICHEC_KNMI model under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The crop model predicted wheat yield increase by 8295% and 77118% at Setif and by 816% and 133135% at BBA under the RCP 4.5 (203564 and 206594) and RCP 8.5 (203564 and 206594) scenarios, respectively, compared to the yield of the baseline period of 19812010. Future yield improvement is due to the fertilizing effect of the elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere, which offsets the negative impacts of rising temperature, decreasing precipitations and the net solar radiation. The expected increase in yield is much higher under RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 4.5 because CO2 concentration is higher under RCP 8.5. The model predicted an increase in wheat water productivity because of the expected decrease in evapotranspiration losses. To adapt rainfed wheat to future climate change in the study area, early sowing in mid-October provides better yields because it allows the wheat crop to take more benefits from increased precipitation during the vegetative development stage and to avoid the spring warming temperature. |
Cote : | Réservé lecteur CIHEAM |
URL / DOI : | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04435-5 |