Lloyd S.J., Chalabi Z. (2021). Climate change, hunger and rural health through the lens of farming styles: an agent-based model to assess the potential role of peasant farming. Plos One, 11/02/2021, vol. 16, n. 2, p. 1-35.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246788
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246788
Titre : | Climate change, hunger and rural health through the lens of farming styles: an agent-based model to assess the potential role of peasant farming (2021) |
Auteurs : | S.J. Lloyd ; Z. Chalabi |
Type de document : | Article |
Dans : | Plos One (vol. 16, n. 2, 2021/02/11) |
Article en page(s) : | p. 1-35 |
Langues : | Anglais |
Langues du résumé : | Anglais |
Catégories : |
Catégories principales 06 - AGRICULTURE. FORÊTS. PÊCHES ; 6.4 - Production Agricole. Système de ProductionThésaurus IAMM AGRICULTURE ; SYSTEME DE PRODUCTION ; EVALUATION DE L'IMPACT ; SECURITE ALIMENTAIRE ; MODELE ; CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ; POLITIQUE AGRICOLE |
Résumé : | Undernutrition is a major contributor to the global-burden of disease, and global-level health impact models suggest that climate change-mediated reductions in food quantity and quality will negatively affect it. These models, however, capture just some of the processes that will shape future nutrition. We adopt an alternative standpoint, developing an agent-based model in which producer-consumer smallholders practice different styles of farming in the global food system. The model represents a hypothetical rural community in which orphan (subsistence) farmers may develop by adopting an entrepreneurial style (highly market-dependent) or by maintaining a peasant style (agroecology). We take a first look at the question: how might patterns of farming stylesunder various style preference, climate, policy, and price transmission scenariosimpact on hunger and health-supporting conditions (incomes, work, inequality, real land productivity) in rural areas? imulations without climate change or agricultural policy found that style preference patterns influence production, food price, and incomes, and there were trade-offs between them. For instance, entrepreneurial-oriented futures had the highest production and lowest prices but were simultaneously those in which farms tended towards crisis. Simulations with climate change and agricultural policy found that peasant-orientated agroecology futures had the highest production, prices equal to or lower than those under entrepreneurial-oriented futures, and better supported rural health. There were, however, contradictory effects on nutrition, with benefits and harms for different groups. Collectively the findings suggest that when attempting to understand how climate change may impact on future nutrition and health, patterns of farming stylesalong with the fates of the households that practice themmatter. These issues, including the potential role of peasant farming, have been neglected in previous global-level climate-nutrition modelling but go to the heart of current debates on the future of farming: thus, they should be given more prominence in future work. |
Cote : | En ligne |
URL / DOI : | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246788 |