| Titre : | Measure the impact of climate change on maize production in the context of risk transfer in South Africa |
| Auteurs : | S. Grosse |
| Type de document : | Thèse, Mémoire, Master |
| Editeur : | s.l. : s.n., 2023 |
| Format : | 129 p. |
| Note générale : | Master 2 Thesis. Territorial planning and local development. Programme: Climate change, agricultural and territorial management [CGAT]. Co-accreditation University Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, CIHEAM-IAMM. |
| Langues : | Anglais |
| Langues du résumé : | Anglais ; Français |
| Catégories : |
Catégories principales 07 - ENVIRONNEMENT ; 7.6 - Changement ClimatiqueThésaurus IAMM CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ; EVALUATION DE L'IMPACT ; CEREALICULTURE ; AFRIQUE DU SUD |
| Résumé : | Climate change poses significant challenges to agricultural systems, impacting crop production and necessitating innovative risk management strategies. This study explores the impact of climate change on maize production in South Africa within the context of risk transfer. Focusing on diverse agroecological zones and agricultural practices, the research addresses the question: What are the climate change risks for maize production? Agroecological areas are selected based on varying climatic and soil conditions, followed by typology creation using field management data. Yield simulations (2023-2052) trough RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the Cropsyst model provide insights into climate change effects. Random forest analysis reveals influential climatic parameters and complex relationships between climate and crop output. Conclusions highlight intricate variability in maize production across areas, varieties, and practices. Specific climatic parameters stand out as influencers, varying by province. Results indicate predominantly negative impacts of climate change, with yield reductions and extreme variability. Comparative analysis of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios underscores nuanced differences. Irrigation mitigates variability, emphasizing its risk management role. This study contributes insights into climate change's complex effects on South African maize production. By assessing risks and risk transfer mechanisms, it informs policymakers and practitioners. As climate change shapes agriculture, the study enhances understanding of risks and resilience strategies for sustainable maize production. |
| Nature du diplôme : | Mémoire (Master 2 CGAT) |
| Université de soutenance : | CIHEAM-IAMM |
| Ville de l'université de soutenance : | Montpellier (France) |
| Cote : | Réservé lecteur CIHEAM |
| Directeur de Thèse : | Belhouchette H.; Berchoux T. |
| Membres du Jury : | Requier-Desjardins D.; Check M.; Belhouchette H.; Berchoux T. |
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