Guo X., Zhang P., Yue Y. (2024). Prediction of global wheat cultivation distribution under climate change and socioeconomic development. Science of the Total Environment, 01/04/2024, vol. 919, p. 170481.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170481
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170481
Titre : | Prediction of global wheat cultivation distribution under climate change and socioeconomic development (2024) |
Auteurs : | X. Guo ; P. Zhang ; Y. Yue |
Type de document : | Article |
Dans : | Science of the Total Environment (vol. 919, April 2024) |
Article en page(s) : | p. 170481 |
Langues : | Anglais |
Langues du résumé : | Anglais |
Catégories : |
Catégories principales 06 - AGRICULTURE. FORÊTS. PÊCHES ; 6.1 - Généralités. Situation AgricoleThésaurus IAMM CEREALICULTURE ; BLE ; PREVISION ; REPARTITION GEOGRAPHIQUE ; CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE |
Résumé : | Socioeconomic and climate change are both essential factors affecting the global cultivation distributions of crops. However, the role of socioeconomic factors in the prediction of future crop cultivation distribution under climate change has been rarely explored. Motivated by revealing the future global wheat cultivation distribution that coupling socioeconomic factors and climate change, the MaxEnt-SPAM approach was proposed by the present study. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal patterns of global wheat cultivation in the near-term (2011-2040), the mid-term (2041-2070), and long-term (2071?2100) under the scenarios of RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 were predicted. It indicated that the predictive accuracy of the proposed approach could be over 80 %, with a significant positive correlation (p |
Cote : | Réservé lecteur CIHEAM |
URL / DOI : | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170481 |