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After consolidating the information received from stakeholders (Focal Points, Joint Research Centre of the European Commission), MED-Amin has just published its first Crop Forecast Bulletin 2023. It provides early quality forecasts for the 2022-2023 season, with a particular focus on soft wheat, durum wheat, and barley.
It provides an overview of the impacts of the drought over much of the western Mediterranean, already giving a negative outlook for the next cereal harvest.
Specifically, the start of the 2023 cereal season has been mainly influenced by dry conditions with heterogeneous impacts on the Mediterranean region. In the northern and eastern Mediterranean, despite relatively dry conditions in January and February 2023, crops are developing well, with areas to watch in southern France, eastern Spain, northern Italy and central Anatolia (Türkiye), where the consequences of this more pronounced dry regime could be felt in the absence of rain in the coming weeks.
In the Maghreb countries, on the other hand, severe drought is already hampering cereal growth with conditions considered poor in western and eastern Algeria, central and southern Morocco and central Tunisia.
In the north-west, heavy rains in the autumn (October-December 2022) and high input prices have led to delayed sowing and reduced areas under winter cereals (Portugal) or early fertilisation (Spain).
